You can tell that a new year is upon us.

The newspapers are full of prognostications by a parade of pundits on every topic imaginable. It's no surprise. After all, many people would like some reassurance, something to enable them to see the familiar in the uncertain.

So, at the beginning of the year, predictions are made. Some will come to pass. Others won't. Fortunately for those who get it wrong, there isn't the same test for accuracy for journalists that an Old Testament prophet would require. The nearest they will get to a public execution is the possibility that they may have their more embarrassing mistakes examined at length by their rivals in the following new year's article.